Plastic Roulette: Scientists Quantify the Deadly Odds for Marine Life
Source PublicationProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Primary AuthorsMurphy, Baechler, Roman et al.
The grim sight of marine animals harmed by plastic is familiar, but scientists have now calculated the specific odds of death. By analysing data from over 10,000 necropsies, a new study has put a number on the lethal risk of plastic ingestion for seabirds, marine mammals, and sea turtles.
The research reveals that the danger often comes from acute physical harm, such as a gut obstruction or perforation, rather than a cumulative effect. The statistical modelling found that a 90% chance of mortality was associated with ingesting just 23 plastic pieces for a seabird, 29 pieces for a marine mammal, and 405 pieces for a sea turtle.
The study also highlights that not all plastics are equally dangerous. Rubber posed the greatest risk to seabirds, while soft plastics and fishing debris were most hazardous for marine mammals. This detailed quantitative assessment provides crucial data for conservationists, helping to inform future risk assessments and management frameworks for marine ecosystems.